“A successful rebellion could be accomplished with only 2% active support among the population, providing the remaining 98% either sympathised with, or acquiesced in, guerrilla activity” -
TE Lawrence
The key to success in asymmetric conflicts against extremists, insurgents or terrorists is not the physical battle to defeat these adversaries but the psychological struggle for the hearts and minds of the communities from which they derive their recruits, resources and safe havens. These communities are therefore the Center of Gravity in an asymmetric conflict. The primary focus of our counter terrorist or counter insurgency operations must therefore be a coordinated influence campaign designed to sever the link between the asymmetric adversary, its support base and any other contested population. To sever that link one must intimately understand these communities in all their complexity and correctly identify why they provide support to the extremists; support that is often given willingly for reasons that are highly complicated and multifaceted.
“No matter how enmeshed a commander becomes in the elaboration of his own thoughts, it is sometimes necessary to take the enemy into account” - Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill rightly pointed out that the enemy also gets a vote in any conflict. This is no different when confronting terrorist and insurgent adversaries. In asymmetric warfare, the enemy clearly understands that they are not engaged in an attritional battle between two conventional armies but in a deadly contest for the hearts and minds of contested audiences. The enemy will therefore use a variety of psychological tools to win over or at least coerce these populations. These tools include both the expert use of propaganda and the employment of violence, the so-called “propaganda of the deed”, in order to inspire, intimidate, influence. To defeat such an adversary we too must engage in influence warfare using all of tools of hard and soft power at our disposal. The aim is to ensure that the asymmetric adversary’s vote does not count.
“Insurgencies are primarily concerned with the struggle for men’s minds” - General Sir Frank Kitson GBE KCB MC
An Influence Campaign is designed to exploit hard (military, law enforcement, intelligence lines of operation) and soft (political, diplomatic, economic and informational) power in order to successfully influence attitudes and change behaviour. A successful influence operation uses a range of psychological levers including reasoned arguments, emotional appeals, economic and political inducements, and even coercive force if appropriate. If used wisely, Influence Operations can achieve the following effects:
Success in Influence Operations requires effective engagement and dialogue with key segments of the population. However it is also essential that we effectively challenge the personal appeal, group ideology and propaganda of the insurgents who seek to promote their own agenda in order to encourage supporters or coerce the uncommitted and who attempt to portray our successes negatively or steal the credit. The keys to success in this struggle for hearts minds includes the development of detailed target audience understanding; the use of lines of persuasion and message themes that will actually resonate with the target audiences; the utilization of culturally sensitive and relevant narratives; the creation and deployment of multimedia products and the exploitation of all possible avenues to reach critical audiences. A campaign also has to be timely, quickly exploiting all successes and rapidly challenging enemy propaganda before opportunities are lost and the lies and deceits of the insurgents gain credibility.
"Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal" - General Dwight D. Eisenhower